For me the chapping was mostly dehydration and mouth breathing at night, so a humidifier in the bedroom and more water during the day made a big difference. Once my lips stopped cracking I stopped panicking about every dry patch.
Check your lip balm ingredients, because menthol, camphor and heavy fragrance made mine worse in a feedback loop where I reapplied constantly. I switched to a plain balm with SPF 30 and use it before going outside, since sun exposure is one of my biggest triggers.
Chapped lips and a cold sore feel different to me, the tingling and itching in one specific spot is the real warning sign, not general dryness. I keep my lysine routine and my Abreva in the drawer for those days, but honestly most of my dry lip weeks turn out to be nothing.
Alex from Labisan here. You are not alone with this, it is far more common than people admit. The most reproducible lever for most of us is UV, so a daily mineral SPF lip balm plus steady sleep is where I would start. Log what you notice and the pattern usually shows itself.
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